• The top three are locked in: Between Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabersand Rome Odunze, there is no change from the pre-draft rankings of these three as the clear top options in rookie drafts.
• Prime trade-back territory at the end of the first: Highly-drafted wide receivers with questionable profiles equal a great spot to move back and recoup some value on similar prospects with slightly lower draft capital.
• The third round becomes all about “My Guys”: Be prepared for ADP to vary wildly in this range as fantasy managers will start to stray from consensus in order to get the players they like best.
Estimated reading time: 12 minutes
On the PFF Fantasy Podcast, Nathan Jahnke, Kate Magdziuk, Nic Bodiford and I did a 36-pick mock draft for a rookie 1-QB dynasty league. Nathan broke down the superflex mock draft we all did here. You can watch the full draft with the reasoning behind each pick in the video linked below. This is my summary of the draft with my thoughts on how the draft went and how this might be similar or different to a draft you will participate in.
1.01 – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals, Nic Bodiford
1.02 – WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants, Jon Macri
1.03 – WR Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears, Kate Magdziuk
These first three picks are as “chalk” as it gets in rookie drafts this offseason, outside of superflex leagues. These three were the consensus top picks prior to the NFL draft and nothing that happened since then has changed that consensus ranking. While not everyone is going to be excited about Odunze’s immediate potential in Chicago, as Keenan Allen and DJ Moore figure to see the bulk of the targets, his long-term upside is just too great to pass up, as he is tied to Caleb Williams for the foreseeable future.
1.04 – TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders, Nathan Jahnke
This is where things start to differ slightly based on consensus rankings, as there are plenty of drafters who are hesitant about Bowers' landing spot due to Michael Mayer already being there while the quarterback position is a significant question mark heading into 2024. However, prior to the NFL draft, Bowers being the fourth overall ranked rookie would not have been a question considering his seemingly generational talent. For dynasty purposes, betting on talent over the Year 1 situation is almost always the best long-term strategy, and there may not be a more talented prospect at his position, which makes him all the more enticing in this range.
1.05 – WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars, Nathan Jahnke
1.06 – QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears, Kate Magdziuk
1.07 – WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs, Jon Macri
There are difficult decisions to be made here outside of the top. Whether a team needs a quarterback or not, Williams has the long-term potential to be a high-upside fantasy quarterback for years to come, which alone puts him in consideration as the fifth player off the board. However, as Nathan explained during his pick, a need at quarterback is rarer in 1-QB leagues because there now is more than enough good ones to go around, making one of these next wide receivers the likely next-best option.
1.08 – QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders, Nic Bodiford
1.09 – WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers, Nic Bodiford
1.10 – RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers, Jon Macri
1.11 – RB Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals, Kate Magdziuk
1.12 – WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills, Nathan Jahnke
The running backs, Brooks and Benson, both are unlikely to be significant Year 1 contributors barring injury to the starters on their respective teams, but both are primed for decent Year 2 opportunities. As the first two running backs drafted, they should be safe bets for production beyond their rookie seasons.
2.01 – WR Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers, Nathan Jahnke
2.02 – WR Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers, Kate Magdziuk
There wasn’t much surprise to see these two wide receivers as the next picks off the board as they were the last of the first-round wide receivers, which is always going to make them more valuable in rookie drafts.
Both Pearsall and Legette have questionable college profiles as late breakouts who also have lower than 2.00 career yards per route run, which when combined significantly lowers their potential hit rate in the NFL. They both are unlikely to contribute right away in the NFL considering their depth charts, as both Nathan and Kate pointed out during their picks here.
This is prime territory to trade back, in my opinion, as someone who isn’t overly comfortable with Legette, Pearsall, or even Coleman’s (1.12) college profile when compared to a few others who are likely to go after them in drafts. Trading back and acquiring an additional pick from a fantasy manager who is more likely to chase the draft capital here is the ideal scenario for me in this range.
2.03 – WR Jermaine Burton, Cincinnati Bengals, Jon Macri
This is one of the earlier spots that Burton will be drafted, and I did so to highlight one of the players that I would feel comfortable trading back for. Burton has off-field issues but offers a slightly more enticing profile while also being tied to Joe Burrow for at least his rookie contract. Tee Higgins potentially departing in the near future helps make Burton all the more interesting and a nice second-round option for those willing to be patient.
2.04 – QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots – Nic Bodiford
2.05 – RB Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins – Nic Bodiford
Nic made a strong case for Wright to be the third running back off the board in rookie drafts,highlighting that despite both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane likely as the RB1 and RB2 in Miami, there could be a role for Wright to contribute as a rookie as the team’s RB3. Nic referenced Achane coming off injury and Mostert’s age as potential reasons why, but also Wright is a nice fit in Miami’s zone-heavy rushing offense where he led all Power Five running backs with 8.0 yards per carry on zone runs in 2023.
2.06 – WR Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers – Jon Macri
2.07 – WR Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos – Kate Magdziuk
There was betrayal here from both Kate and me, as I took her Steelers’ favorite Roman Wilson right before her, and she returned the favor by taking my pre-draft WR4 in Troy Franklin, who I had hoped would make it to the end of the second round when I picked again.
Both Wilson and Franklin are common picks in the middle of the second round despite the differences in NFL draft capital with Wilson being a third-round pick and Franklin falling to the fourth. If, like me, you were a fan of Franklin pre-draft and don’t hate the landing spot in Denver where he gets to reunite with college quarterback Bo Nix, then it’s going to be important to spend up to get him in this range, as he rarely makes it out of the second round.
2.08 – WR Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts, Nathan Jahnke
2.09 – QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings, Nathan Jahnke
2.10 – RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams, Kate Magdziuk
2.11 – WR Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots – Jon Macri
There are bound to be some highly-drafted players who fall a bit as consensus starts to dissipate in the latter stages of drafts, and these four all have an argument to be drafted a bit higher than where they were taken considering the draft capital spent on them.
Corum is the lone player here taken outside of the second round in the NFL draft, but at the same time, he was the third running back drafted and one of the highest-graded runners of the PFF college era for his career (96.7). He’ll compete for snaps as a rookie with last year’s fantasy RB2 in Kyren Williams, but should also be considered a high-end handcuff option should something happen to Williams this year, as Kate pointed out during her pick.
2.12 – RB Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers – Nic Bodiford
3.01 – RB Audric Estime, Denver Broncos – Nic Bodiford
Nic bumps up the ADP of two Day 3 running backs here between Vidal (sixth round) and Estime (fifth round), making the case that as talented backs who fell in the draft, they arguably landed in good positions to emerge as starters by the end of their rookie seasons, should they earn it.
Vidal has been a Day 3 favorite for many fantasy managers coming out of the NFL draft due to his talent, as he posted back-to-back final seasons in college with 90.0-plus rushing grades and now lands on a relatively thin depth chart in a run-heavy offense. The same can be said for Estime. As Nic laid out, Sean Payton wants to run the ball and considering the recent health of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin not getting a significant workload last year, there’s a path for Estime to win that Mark Ingram-type role in Payton’s offense, and worth the shot here to start Round 3.
3.02 – RB MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers – Jon Macri
3.03 – WR Malachi Corley, New York Jets, Kate Magdziuk
Lloyd and Corley both had third-round draft capital spent on them in the NFL draft and should have roles in their respective offenses right out of the gate. They may not necessarily be ready to start in fantasy lineups, but there’s potential here for both players to emerge relatively soon if all goes well.
Specifically, for Lloyd, the Packers tend to deploy two running backs, and newly-signed Josh Jacobs is coming off his worst season in terms of efficiency, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and earning career lows with a 70.1 rushing grade and 65.0 offensive grade. Lloyd should be able to earn his way onto the field if Jacobs’ struggles continue in Green Bay.
3.04 – RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Nathan Jahnke
3.05 – QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos, Nathan Jahnke
3.06 – RB Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants, Kate Magdziuk
3.07 – WR Javon Baker, New England Patriots, Jon Macri
3.08 – WR Luke McCaffrey, Washington Commanders, Nic Bodiford
This was a real “my guy” range of the draft, as each of us made sure to draft the players that we have a higher affinity for than consensus. At this point of rookie drafts, expect similar things to happen because values will be all over the place depending on your league.
Nathan highlighted Irving’s potential to emerge as a starter by the end of the year considering Rachaad White’s efficiency numbers ranking outside of the top 40 at his position last season (3.7 yards per carry, 68.8 rushing grade). Irving also has one of the best career missed tackles forced per attempt marks (0.36) and rushing grades (95.3) coming out of college despite his smaller size.
Kate referenced Tracy’s college rushing success despite being on a limited sample size and with him being relatively new to the position. He was able to deliver a 90.5 rushing grade in 2023 to go along with an excellent 0.40 missed tackles forced per attempt. He also has the receiving experience and ability to step into a fantasy-relevant role for the Giants as a rookie, as mentioned here.
Baker is a personal favorite. He comes out of college with a better career yards per route run (2.53 versus 1.95), career receiving grade (84.3 versus 76.0) and explosive play rate (44.4% versus 35.0%) while being much more dominant against single coverage with an elite 93.6 receiving grade and 5.07 yards per route run versus single coverage compared to Polk (78.3 and 2.97).
Nic’s guy here is McCaffrey, who he mentioned offers a unique skillset when compared to the other current Commanders wide receivers. Nic believes in McCaffrey being a Year 1 contributor in Washington’s offense, and this is about the range that you’ll typically see the third-round wide receiver come off the board in rookie drafts.
3.09 – QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons, Nic Bodiford
3.10 – WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jon Macri
3.11 – TE Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders, Kate Magdziuk
3.12 – RB Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills, Nathan Jahnke
The last group helps round out the three rounds with more common ADP picks in this range. With only three running backs selected in our superflex mock draft, Davis makes for 10 in this 1-QB version, which — despite getting in an extra round — is still a decent difference to be aware of as teams spend up to make sure quarterbacks are drafted early in two-QB leagues. The same six quarterbacks were drafted in these three rounds as were in two rounds of superflex, but Nix and Penix fell to the third round instead of the second.
Sinnott also makes an appearance within these first three rounds, which is in line with his consensus ranking of 29th overall on FantasyPros. Sinnott was the second tight end drafted in the NFL Draft and has the athletic profile and potential to emerge as the team’s future TE1 while he bides his time behind veteran Zach Ertz.
